The past two presidential elections have highlighted the demographic problems the GOP faces on the national stage. Defeat in 2012 showed Republicans that relying on a shrinking base of aging white voters is not the recipe for victory in today’s America. One year later, few potential Republican candidates have made any inroads into solving the party’s electoral woes — except for one. On November 4th, Chris Christie won a second term as Governor of New Jersey by a huge margin with the majority support of women and Hispanics, also making significant gains with young and African American voters — essentially all the demographic groups the GOP has been struggling with lately. Pundits were quick to hype up a potential 2016 presidential run, not least because Christie appeared on all four major Sunday talk shows the following week to discuss issues ranging from education reform to Iran.
The newly re-elected governor has been unsurprisingly coy regarding a potential candidacy, but his behavior certainly indicates that he is more than flirting with the idea. Christie’s victory speech sounded remarkably like an audition for the presidential campaign trail, contrasting Washington’s dysfunction with the bipartisanship exhibited during his first term in office: “I know that if we can do this in Trenton, N.J., then maybe the folks in Washington, D.C., should tune in their TVs right now and see how it’s done,” he told supporters in Asbury Park’s packed Convention Hall.
Chris Christie’s appeal across demographic and political divides should have Republican strategists foaming at the mouth. Yet it is uncertain whether his stellar performance in New Jersey can be replicated on the national stage, much less during the GOP primaries.
On one hand, there seems to be something about Christie that voters like. Many see him as a Republican who rises above his party’s characteristic stubbornness, a candidate who will be able to re-center the GOP and expand its base of support — a Republican Bill Clinton, if you will. Christie’s authentic and spontaneous style is a breath of fresh air in today’s world of talking points and cookie cutter politicians. In a country where people’s opinions of politicians are at an all time low, unorthodoxy is undoubtedly and asset. What kind of unorthodoxy, though, is a question worth asking. Christie’s boisterous style may be appealing to those in the Northeast, but Southern and Midwestern voters might be put off by his combative demeanor. Regardless, if there is one thing that Chris Christie is not lacking in it is charisma. The same cannot not be said of the past two Republican candidates.
On the other hand, although the coalition that elected Christie is any Republican candidate’s dream in a national election, the real question is whether the newly elected Governor has any chance of winning a GOP primary. A Republican governor in a deep blue state (remind you of anyone?), Christie would be the third moderate Republican candidate in a row if he won the nomination, or at least that is the argument his opponents would make. He would be running against the likes of Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan, all much further to the right of the political spectrum than himself. One can easily see how the New Jersey Governor would be an easy target for his Tea Party opponents. They would be quick to call him a RINO — Republican in name only — and perhaps not without merit in the context of today’s GOP. During his first term as governor, Christie accepted the legitimacy of climate science, said he supported a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, chose not to challenge a New Jersey court decision allowing same-sex marriage, and even openly endorsed gun control measures. Perhaps even worse, Christie has the reputation for not being a team player. He memorably (or maybe infamously) collaborated with Barack Obama in the aftermath of hurricane Sandy, much to the chagrin of Mitt Romney and Republican pundits. He also chose not to assign late Senator Frank R. Lautenberg’s Senate seat to a Republican, instead holding a special election that resulted in an overwhelming victory for Newark Mayor Corey Booker.
The governor argues that he has governed as a conservative, not a moderate. There is definitely some truth to this as well. Christie is pro-life, and has cut funding for Planned Parenthood, as well as vetoed legislation designed to eliminate the gender wage gap. He also killed a New Jersey version of the DREAM Act, vetoed a bill that increased the minimum wage and withdrew from regional carbon cap and trade bill. It is unlikely, however, that these measures will be enough to prove his conservative bona fides to the right wing of his party. In the end, Christie’s record is truly bipartisan, a word that is generally praised in national elections and used as an insult in Republican primaries. So far, Christie sees his bipartisanship as an asset, arguing for moderation and compromise over partisanship and stubbornness: “It’s [governing] about human relationships, the fact of the matter is nobody in this city talks to each other anymore and if they do talk to each other it’s not civilly,” he said speaking to the Wall Street Journal’s annual CEO Council Conference in DC. “What we have in Washington now are absolutists.”
It is not only Christie’s tendency for compromise that will make him a target during the primaries. Despite the governor’s popularity, New Jersey is one of the most economically lagging states in the country. Opponents will surely grill Christie on the fact that the tax burden for the average family in New Jersey grew 18.4% while he was in office, or the fact that New Jersey has some of the highest unemployment and poverty rates in the country, and ranks among the lowest in economic growth and job creation. Christie may have been re-elected by ten-point margin in a state housing almost 1 million more Democrats than Republicans, but there is little in his economic record to suggest he is a great administrator.
And then there’s the regular campaign stuff — the skeletons in the closet — which Christie appears to have a collection of. Some of these have been exposed by Mark Halperin and John Heileman in their book Double Down: Game Change 2012. The authors got their hands on a Romney campaign vice-presidential vetting file which details a Justice Department investigation into Christie’s inappropriate spending habits during his time as a U.S. attorney, the governor’s tendency to award government contracts to friends and allies and a lobbying career which includes work for a financial firm with links to Bernie Madoff. In sum, there is no lack of ammunition for those who might seek to run a negative campaign against Christie.
From afar, a Christie candidacy sounds like a game-changing campaign with a lot of potential. The closer you get though, the more improbable the possibility of victory seems. Nevertheless, at least for now, while Christie has not yet felt the full weight of the scrutiny that inevitably accompanies a presidential campaign, he seems to be doing well. A recent CNN poll shows Christie leading the race for the Republican nomination by 7 percentage points. Most national election polls have Christie narrowly loosing to Hillary Clinton, however.
Three years away from Election Day and two years away from the first Republican primaries, it is difficult to predict what will happen if Christie decides to throw his hat in the ring. If he runs, the New Jersey Governor has guaranteed he will run a consistent campaign: “I’m going to be me, and if I ever decide to run for anything again and being me isn’t enough, I’ll go home.” It should make for an entertaining campaign season.