In the German federal elections this past September, the country’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) received only 20.5 percent of the vote—an all-time low. Since then, the SPD has struggled to reposition itself in the new German political arena. In the face of his resounding defeat, then-party leader Martin Schulz (now replaced by Andrea Nahles) responded with a confident statement of his party’s commitment to the political role of opposition. Then, after Merkel’s failed attempt to form a three-party coalition of her own Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), and the Green party, the SPD reversed its stance and entered coalition talks. Now, the general party body faces an internal crisis on whether to accept the terms Schulz negotiated. The results of the member’s vote will be announced on March 5. If the general body votes “Yes,” Germany will have another grand coalition (“GroKo”) of SPD and CDU. In the case of a “No” vote, Merkel will face the choice of either pursuing a minority government or calling new elections. In the past six months since the election, the SPD’s public support showed a sharp and shocking decrease to a record low of 16 percent, largely due to the lack of a cohesive platform within the party. In the recent polls, Germany’s “people’s party” now has a mere one-percentage-point lead over the right-extreme Alternative for Germany (AfD). The SPD’s confusion over its parliamentary position illustrates a larger trend among European center-left parties: their inability to offer pragmatic solutions to the challenges of immigration and social inequality posed by globalization.
A graphic by the Berliner Morgenpost summarizes German voters’ most important concerns pertaining to the 2017 federal elections as voiced about a month before heading to the polls. Strikingly, traditional top concerns, such as unemployment, wages, and the country’s economic situation, which had led the list for the past 20 years, all find themselves at the bottom. Rather, the chart shows the dramatic rise of the answer “immigration” from a relatively insignificant rank 12 to the top of the list. This is hardly surprising. The 890,000 migrants entering Germany at the height of the refugee crisis in 2015 put societal pressure on a country unprepared for such extensive administrative and integration efforts. The public image of migrants was further strained by the large-scale sexual harassment committed by mostly North African men in Cologne on New Years 2016 and a Tunisian asylum seeker’s terrorist attack on a Berlin Christmas market in December 2016. Built on the concept of solidarity, the social estrangement and polarization caused by heavy immigration is especially challenging for center-left parties. Yet, instead of addressing this challenge, the SPD neglects its electorate’s primary concern. In its 116-page manifesto, immigration policy is the tenth point on the list of issues, addressed on page 94—following employment, the country’s current economic situation, and environmental policies. Except for its emphasis on social equity (the number 2 voter concern), the SPD’s manifesto reveals the stark disconnect between popular and party agendas.
In recent years, a new cultural, or “open-closed,” divide has emerged, dividing voters of all parties along cultural topics such as immigration, EU membership, economic protectionism, and same-sex marriage. The SPD, holding on to the traditional economic left-right spectrum and disregarding the surging open-closed political spectrum, confirms a common trend among the European center-left. When Benoit Hamon, presidential candidate for the French Socialist Party (PS), only secured 6.4 percent of the vote in the first round presidential election of 2017 (down from 29 percent in 2012), the party faced an internal crisis, and several members broke with party lines to support Macron instead. The PS, in a similar predicament to that of the SPD right now, lost its clear political position and party unity. Gérard Grunberg, a renowned member of the Center for European Studies at Sciences Po, attributes the center-left’s failure to the challenge of addressing a political spectrum that runs along party lines. Rather than uniformly identifying with open or closed politics, voters of the center-left are split between the two ideologies, which forces parties to reposition themselves. In France, in addition to immigration, membership in the European Union is one of the most divisive topics in the country. The mainstream parties’ failure to address these issues in past legislative periods explains the success of outsiders such as Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The same reasoning applies to the rise of the AfD in Germany. According to a study by Statista, 60 percent of AfD voters elected their party purely out of disappointment with other parties.
Aside from such general European currents, the SPD in Germany is also confronted by the added obstacle of Merkel’s leftward orientation of the CDU. In 2011, Merkel committed to Germany’s nuclear phase-out by 2022 in response to the disaster in Fukushima. In 2014, she announced a legally mandated 30 percent female quota for managerial positions. In 2015, she relayed a message of hope (“Wir schaffen das,” or “We can do it”) in response to the burdens of unprecedented refugee migration, and, in 2017, she succumbed to the pressure of parliament and admitted a vote on gay marriage, which passed in July of that year. As the CDU gradually shifted along the political spectrum, the party was perceived to be left of center for the first time in 2015. With her repositioning, Merkel assumed many of the classical left social issues and made it increasingly challenging for the SPD to find a unique, differentiating political program.
Despite decreases in its popularity, however, the left is not doomed. In order to successfully address its hurdles and challenges, the left must refurbish its rhetoric. There is no easy solution to the challenges of globalization. However, recognizing both the problems and the possibilities it brings with it may soothe the lost trust and frustration that many voters have been expressing. Lauded UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn excited young voters with his social media campaigning and sustainably converted this excitement into a 10.3 percent increase in vote share in 2017. As he promises to increase funding for public health services and abolish university fees through raised corporate and high-earners taxes and stresses the benefits of controlled migration for the labor market, Corbyn stays true to his socialist values while promoting the benefit of culturally open politics. The SPD should follow his example and regain political momentum among the culturally liberal and young.
Thanks for making my point.