I meant to begin with a post on European Structural Funds. Structural Funds and regulation are the stereotypically dull issues European integration used to be about. Brussels bureaucrats bickering over the optimal way of manufacturing and getting rid of batteries, engaging in petty arguments about whether the average Belgian cow receives as many subsidies as its French counterpart, and so on. This used to be the fascinating world of EU governance.
Unfortunately reality got in the way, so Structural Funds will have to wait. Of late, European issues have become very colorful. September has been an interesting month in southern Europe. On Wednesday Greek workers went on a general strike, which as usual ended violently. Two weeks ago half a million citizens demonstrated against budget cuts in Portugal, until now austerity’s poster-child. Spain witnessed similar mobilizations, and an attempt to surround the Congreso de los Diputados -Spain’s lower house of Congress- on Tuesday.
It ended up badly. You can find an excellent summary here.
Prime Minister Rajoy’s government framed the protest as a coup d’état, and deployed more than half of the country’s riot police to deal with it. Needless to say protesters were not attempting to install a military junta, but that did not stop the police from overreacting. Thirty-five protesters were arrested, including 72-year old Miguel Quinteiro. In an even greater display of brutality the police stormed Atocha train station (a mile away from where the first clashes took place) and randomly beat up –well, anyone who happened to be there.
This is the first time violence on such a scale takes place in Spain. It raises the question of how much time it will take for Spain to become Greece. Fortunately the indignados movement has been committed to non-violence from its very inception. That, plus the fact that the extreme right is neither mobilized nor meaningful in Spain (unlike in Greece) makes me think (hope?) it won’t happen anytime soon.
But here is where the good news end. Despite an austere budget for 2013, government spending is bound to increase as a result of growing interest on debt payments. Recent stress tests confirm Spanish banks are short of almost €60 billion. Catalonia is threatening to secede from Spain –a move with devastating economic and social potential. And just as I am optimistic in the short run, I would not expect the Spanish youth to put up with mass unemployment, austerity, and hunger forever. Violence is bound to become more and more appealing. This is just as regrettable as it is understandable.
Maintaining social stability under these conditions will become harder and harder, and what goes for Spain goes for the rest of southern Europe –perhaps even for France, now that left-wing rigueur is back in swing. Berlin and the ECB are playing with fire, and risk unleashing the worst Europe has to offer.