The news of the arrest of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman — the most wanted drug lord in the world — has been received by many as a crucial success for the Mexican government. The fall of the Sinaloa’s Cartel leader, the world’s largest and most powerful trafficking organization, has been presented as a reaffirmation of both Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s commitment to the War on Drugs, and as evidence of the close communication between the Mexican and American governmental intelligence agencies. Guzman, who escaped from prison in 2001, had been impressively evading the Mexican security forces for the past 13 years. However, on February 22, the Mexican government proudly announced his capture in a condominium in Mazatlán, Sinaloa in an operation coordinated between the Mexican Marines and the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). Guzman’s capture has been applauded internationally as another gold medal for Peña Nieto, who, after one year in office managed to bring down America’s Public Enemy #1, a task that his predecessor Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, could not accomplish in six years.
While the arrest of “El Chapo” is indeed a remarkable event in the Drug War, not everyone has welcomed the news. In fact, the recent developments in Mexico suggest that the apprehension may have unexpected consequences. Perhaps the most immediate concern for Mexico (and the rest of the world, actually) is whether or not Guzman’s arrest will result in a backlash of violence between cartels. Furthermore, last week’s protests in rural Mexico requesting the liberation of Guzman call for an evaluation of the impact the drug cartels have in Mexicans’ lives.
Most security experts agree that even though the fall of “the Chapo” is a significant blow to the Sinaloa Cartel, the criminal organization will continue operating without him. After all, while Guzman was imprisoned from 1993 to 2001, the Cartel kept functioning thanks to Ismael “el Mayo” Zambada, who took over the lead role during those years. However, while some analysts believe that Zambada will be Guzman’s successor, others are concerned that Guzman’s son, “el Chapito,” will seek to become the new cartel’s leader. Experts worry that an internal power struggle could result in an escalation of violence in Mexican towns. However, it is important to indicate that such a weakness in the cartel’s structure could provide a golden opportunity for the Mexican government to advance in its quest to dismantle the powerful cartel.
As to the possibility of experiencing an increase in violence between different cartels, analysts have indicated that the obvious dominance of the Sinaloa Cartel would discourage others’ attempts to overpower it. Yet, recent events show that the situation is not so simple. For instance, it is widely commented that Michoacan’s Self Defense Forces (which I wrote about a couple of weeks ago) actually received their high-range weapons from the Sinaloa Cartel. The past clashes between the Self Defense Forces and the Knights Templars have proven beneficial for the Sinaloa Cartel, but the current instability could be used to the Knight’s advantage to get even. Thus, while it is unlikely that the Sinaloa Cartel will lose power with the capture of “el Chapo,” we are yet to see whether or not other cartels will try to dispute territorial dominance.
Another issue that requires careful attention is why numerous locals in Sinaloa protected “el Chapo” for the past decades. On February 26, approximately 2000 people marched in Culiacan (the capital of Sinaloa state,) demanding the liberation of Guzman. Many posters in the march showed messages such as “We love Chapo” and “Chapo free.” When asked why he supported the drug lord, agricultural farmer Pedro Ramirez responded: “We support Chapo Guzman because he is the one who gives us jobs and helps out in the mountains.”
Even though some reports have argued that Guzman’s family organized the protest, the drug lord’s popularity is still extraordinary. For many, the idea that drug lords inspire admiration among rural young Mexicans, and that countless folk songs and books have been written in their honor, can initially seem nonsensical. However, considering that the drug industry has meant an agricultural boost in many states of Mexico, and that thousands of farmers have been employed through this illegal industry, the idolization of the drug lords seems more justified.
The Mexican government has not been able to win much of the countryside’s loyalty in the way “el Chapo” did. It seems evident that, if Peña Nieto aspires to dismantle the rest of the Sinaloa Cartel, the local support will become key to capture the other members. This is evidently a complex process, but Peña Nieto should bear in mind that as long as his administration does not prioritize giving legal incentives to agriculture, building infrastructure in rural areas and controlling corruption, his drug war mission will be extremely more difficult than it already is.
For now, Guzman has been taken to a high-security prison in Mexico City, and it remains unclear whether or not he will be extradited to the United States. In any case, the recent success of the Mexican Marines has resulted in worldwide praise to Peña Nieto’s government and the Mexican security forces. The attention that they have received is very well deserved. After all, when it comes to the Drug War, they are the most affected and involved group of the Mexican population… right?