In June 2013, the streets of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil erupted in protest over the rising cost of public transportation. The protests quickly snowballed into a referendum on the Brazilian public’s discontent with the government. Protestors across the country, numbering between 300,000 and one million (depending on who is telling the story), attacked what they saw as a pattern of cronyism: overspending on the World Cup and the Olympics and the support of a brutal police force. According to Datafolha, a Brazilian polling company, President Dilma Rousseff’s approval rating dropped from 57 percent to 30 percent between June 7 and 27 — a 27 percent drop in just 20 days. Rousseff was forced to roll back many of the fare hikes, increase spending and oversight of public transportation, commit more money to public education, vow to further crackdown on corruption and even offer to amend the constitution by referendum. While the spending changes have been made, attempts to uproot the systemic corruption that permeates Brazilian politics have been met with limited success. But now, with a presidential election looming, these protestors may finally have a formal political forum in which they can express their grievances.
Rousseff, a member of the center-left Worker’s Party (PT), finds herself up for reelection and facing an uphill battle against the sentiments expressed last June. However, Rousseff’s greatest challenger, Aécio Neves, a member of the center-right Social Democracy Party (PSDB), has run up against the same anti-establishment anger that has followed Rousseff’s campaign. Brazil’s mandatory voting laws mean that anti-establishment voters are largely expected to cast “null” votes. Currently, PT holds a sizable lead. As of July 15, polls showed that 36 percent of voters intended to vote for Rousseff, with Neves lagging at 20 percent, and that a substantial 13 percent of voters intended to cast null votes. Additionally, Eduardo Campos and Pastor Everaldo trailed, with 8 percent and 5 percent respectively. With the election looming on October 5, the stage looked set for yet another PT-PSDB runoff election.
However, the entire face of this election was transformed when a plane carrying Socialist Party (PSB) candidate Eduardo Campos crashed, killing all on board. Campos had campaigned on the same, balanced formula he used during his time as governor of Pernambuco: expanding social welfare, public health and education, coupled with reducing restrictions on business to encourage private investment. He also proposed the formation of an independent central bank to stem the tide of inflation. Like many of the candidates, Campos vowed to crack down on the endemic corruption in Brazilian politics; however, he presented no concrete plan before his untimely demise.
Following Campos’ death, Marina Silva, his former running mate, has stepped in to take over the PSB ticket. While Campos had not been seen as a serious contender, Silva has been the focus of immense media coverage in the wake of his death. Silva had been brought on as a last minute addition to Campos’ ticket after she was unsuccessful in gaining enough signatures to run as her own party. In 2010, Silva obtained 19 percent of the vote while running as the Green Party candidate — a straggling third place in the national election. Now running as the lead candidate on the PSB ticket, Silva brings with her much of the support she had in 2010. According to Datafolha, on August 14, just a day after Campos’ death, 21 percent of voters said they would vote for Silva in the election. While some were quick to write her off as a sympathy candidate, the most recent polling from September 4 has shown that support for Silva has only continued to grow. Now commanding 34 percent of the vote, Silva is virtually tied with Rousseff who, at 35 percent, has barely maintained her lead. Silva has effectively capitalized on anti-establishment sentiment, drawing support from previously null-voters, supporters of Neves and supporters of other third party candidates (support for whom has dwindled below 1 percent).
Silva is a unique figure in Brazilian politics; born to a family of rubber tappers in the impoverished state of Acre, Silva’s black ancestry as well as her upbringing has set her apart from the usual world of the Brazilian political elite. Silva has a strong track record as a highly principled politician who has held her views above those of the establishment. Appointed Minister of the Environment in 2003, Silva took an outspoken stance against deforestation and quit in 2008 over government inaction. Her time as senator was similarly marked by her principled stands on issues of social justice. Her fearless insurrectionism has resonated with many Brazilians as discontented voters are seeing her campaign as a chance to send a message to the political establishment. This groundswell of support, along with Silva’s support by many Brazilian investors, has allowed Silva to present a strong opposition to the establishment candidates Rousseff and Neves. Members of the PSDB have even publicly announced that in a runoff between Rousseff and Silva, they would support Silva.
While tragic, the death of Campos may be the impetus to realizing the vision of a new Brazil outlined by protestors in June last year. They wanted a radical shakeup of the government in order to put a country, which has been stagnating politically and economically, back on track. In his death, Campos has brought attention and support to Silva as well as her policies. While the PSB remains an outsider, should Silva win, she will surely bring substantial change to government. If Rousseff manages to carry the election, it will likely be by a far narrower margin than she had envisioned as anger at the political establishment continues to fester throughout Brazil. While October still remains a long way off, and the results are far from certain, the race is carrying the weight of half a decade of economic and social tumult. As last year’s protests have shown, Brazil is taking its destiny in hand as it strives to take its place as a leader in South America and the world.