Since President Obama’s much-publicized visit to India in January, analysts have heralded the advent of strong US-India relations. The general consensus is that, after a rocky period involving the arrest of Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade for visa fraud in 2014, ties between the nations are better than ever. However, less has been said in the Western media about another critical alliance resurfacing between India’s regional rivals: China and Pakistan.
During his trip, Obama emphasized his commitment to India, supporting its bid for a permanent UN seat. He also called for Islamabad to crack down on militant safe havens and the single surviving terrorist behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks. This blatant validation of India’s diplomatic stance inflamed many Pakistanis, who believed Obama was unfairly favoring their traditional enemy. The United States has historically allied with Pakistan and maintained frigid relations with India. As such, the Pakistani government is undoubtedly concerned with the recent turnaround under the Obama administration.
In the midst of this new tension between the erstwhile allies, China has voiced its unwavering support for Pakistan. And while Obama celebrated India’s Republic Day with Modi, China called Pakistan an “irreplaceable all-weather friend”. This idea was reiterated only two weeks later, with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi proclaiming that his nation’s enduring friendship with Pakistan would “never go rusty” (leading to a new name for the alliance, the “Iron Brotherhood”). But perhaps the most concrete sign of a developing China-Pakistan axis was Pakistan’s invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping, asking him to be guest of honor at an annual military parade. This move mirrored Modi’s own invitation to Obama and heralds the re-emergence of Pakistan’s reliance on China.
As China and Pakistan have had friendly diplomatic relations since 1951, China’s proclamations seem unsurprising. These ties have only strengthened over time, particularly due to their mutual suspicion of India. In 1963, as a response to the Sino-Indian border dispute, they signed the controversial Sino-Pakistani Agreement. This document demarcated their alleged possessions in Kashmir and Ladakh, presenting a united front against the Indian government. The alliance became all the more vital to the Chinese during the Sino-Soviet Split, since the USSR was a strong supporter of India. China is even credited with helping Pakistan construct its nuclear program in the 1980s, and the two governments have since maintained strong ties.
However, the fallout from 9/11 saw Pakistan emerge as a pivotal player in President George W. Bush’s War on Terror. As the United States and Pakistan re-kindled their alliance, the American influence ostensibly became dominant in Islamabad. The Bush administration granted $1 million to Pakistan in 2003 as a goodwill gesture and followed this up by allowing Pakistan to purchase strategic military equipment. As a result, the Sino-Pakistan ties became less prominent.
This trend reversed with the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” and, more particularly, their focus on improving relations with India. Pakistan is currently highly dependent on Chinese military assistance, since China has recently replaced the United States as its largest arms supplier. The countries also share military expertise including joint training exercises and intelligence. Together, they are currently developing the advanced JF-17 Thunder multi-role combat aircraft and have also manufactured the K-8 Karakoram light attack aircraft. China is also responsible for developing Pakistan’s military infrastructure, assisting them in maritime and aeronautical projects like the Pakistan Aeronatuical Complex. As American support for the Pakistani military dwindles, China’s role in Pakistan’s defense will likely increase in the years to come.
Moreover, the nations are strong economic allies and have committed to fostering deeper commercial ties. They have recently announced the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a project that involves $45.6 billion worth of infrastructure and energy investments. The corridor is certainly beneficial to both countries. Not only does it strengthen Pakistan’s industries and create jobs, it also links Kwagar in China to the Pakistani port of Gwadar (which is currently managed by Chinese state-run organization Overseas Port Holdings, Ltd.). This will give it an important shipping route to the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The project is an ambitious example of both nations’ dedication to a lasting alliance.
So why have relations between China and Pakistan emerged to the fore in recent years? This shift is in part due to China’s desire to challenge American supremacy in the current world order. As demonstrated by their support of North Korea, China has a record of aligning with governments that earn the ire of Washington. In the context of the waning US-Pakistan alliance, China naturally aims to undermine American influence in South Asia. Pakistan, on the other hand, primarily wants a powerful ally for military and economic support, but also to ensure it remains relevant on the world stage.
The Pakistani government, for its part, has shown its commitment to maintaining strong relations with its China . This is evidenced by their reaction to the militant takeover of Islamabad’s iconic Lal Masjid (Red Mosque). During this attack, Islamic radicals kidnapped several Chinese nationals. Although the United States had long called on Pakistan to mobilize against such terrorist groups, they were initially reluctant to crack down on radicals. Analyst Andrew Small alleges that Chinese pressure was ultimately the key factor in their decision to target the terrorists and launch a siege on the Masjid. He goes on to claim that, after finding the remnants of the American helicopter used to raid Osama Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan’s first action was to show this technology to the Chinese military. These examples underscore the depth of Chinese leverage in Pakistan.
Conversely, China is more wary of strengthening ties with its unstable neighbor. Beijing is critically aware that Pakistan is a potential safe haven for Uighur militants from the volatile province of Xinjiang. According to Chinese officials, Uighur radicals have long-standing connections with terror groups in Pakistan. Though Islamabad has condemned militancy in Xinjiang and launched a campaign against terrorism in its northern provinces, the Chinese government is concerned that Pakistan’s growing radicalism will transfer across the border. Its apprehension has not constrained their interactions thus far, but may generate underlying tension in the future.
Of course, the China-Pakistan alliance is also checked by the fact that both governments are reluctant to forsake other diplomatic relations or irretrievably upset Washington. It is telling that, despite critiquing Obama’s preference of India, the Chinese subsequently welcomed Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj for an important conference. Xi Jinping then announced his decision to travel to Washington on his first official state visit to cement Sino-American cooperation. Pakistan, too, has maintained strong military ties with the American government, which has assisted them in counterterrorism strategies and infrastructure projects. This double standard ensures that the “Iron Brotherhood” remains one of the most guarded relationships in global politics.
In any case, the re-emergence of the China-Pakistan axis has many implications for the balance of power in the subcontinent. As the United States and India drift closer, China and Pakistan will no doubt use their alliance to offset American influence in the region. Ultimately, this might even lead to the formation of two opposing blocs, mirroring the US-Pakistan and USSR-India alliances during the Cold War. Given the destructive history of alliance blocs, such a dynamic would be disastrous for regional stability in the 21st century.