Four years ago, a mass demonstration in Barcelona to celebrate La Diada, Cataluña’s national holiday, triggered the latest in a long line of efforts to kick-start a serious move for Catalán independence. While a 2014 referendum in favor of independence passed resoundingly, it was plagued by low turnout and the results were disregarded, mainly because the country’s Tribunal Constitucional already declared the exercise unconstitutional. All this could change soon, as on September 27, Carles Puigdemont, President of the Generalitat de Catalunya, announced plans to hold another referendum within a year. The pronouncement seemed timed to take advantage of the current political gridlock paralyzing Madrid — Spain has persisted without an elected government since late 2015, as two successive elections delivered parliaments without any clear majority. Emblematic of the populist turmoil affecting the whole of Spain at the moment, the political situation is providing just the platform Puigdemont needs to reinvigorate a movement that now has far more to do with economic discontent than high-minded national sovereignty.
The origins of Catalan separatism stem from the historical composition of the Kingdom of Spain. Until union of crowns with the marriage of King Fernando of Aragón and Queen Isabela of Castilla, the Iberian Peninsula was divided among many different kingdoms. Even after this union, the administrative structures of the various kingdoms that composed the Spanish crown remained completely separate; it wasn’t until the War of Spanish Succession that the separate spheres were unified. Cataluña, along with the rest of Aragón, was on the losing side of the conflict; indeed, the Catalan national day memorializes the region’s defeat in the Siege of Barcelona. Successive governments embarked on programs of centralization, although sectors of Catalan society continued to agitate for more privileges.
The darkest chapter in the movement came with the repression of the Franco regime, which outlawed the use of regional languages and brutally crushed any attempts at decentralization. The situation was relaxed with the transition to democracy; the Constitution of 1978 specifically recognizes the so-called historic “nationalities” — Galicia, Cataluña, and the País Vasco — and provides for decentralized government in the form of the autonomous communities. It seemed that, at least for the foreseeable future, the question of nationalism was settled.
The spark for the latest round of separatist agitation was the 2006 Estatuto de Autonomía, which is basically the Spanish equivalent of a state constitution. The law, negotiated between the Generalitat and Madrid, and approved in a popular referendum, was later significantly altered by the Tribunal Constitucional in 2010, angering nationalists who though the new arrangement didn’t grant the region sufficient self-governance. Support for independence began to rise in the wake of the ruling, and separatists organized demonstrations and votes across Cataluña.
The rejection of the Estatuto de Autonomiá may similarly raise the specter of an overreaching central government, but the new movement for separation doesn’t draw from the same historical roots as its predecessors — this one is driven by more practical implications. In absolute terms, Cataluña is Spain’s wealthiest region, and per capita it is in the top five. That said, Catalonians pay more in taxes to the central government than they receive in return — data from 2011 suggest that the discrepancy amounted to 8.5 billion euros. Catalan leaders have lobbied Madrid for a better deal time and time again without any luck — the center-right Partido Popular, along with many of the other autonomous communities, strongly oppose the further devolution of power to Cataluña. The economic crisis has only exacerbated the tensions, as the region is the most indebted in the country. In many ways, the continued push for independence is merely a bargaining chip in these negotiations.
The complaints of the Catalonians, while grounded in reality, ignore the inconvenient truth about secession: if the region somehow achieved independence, it’s likely that it would be far worse off. Just as was the case with Scotland, European Union membership would not automatically accrue to a newly independent Cataluña, a fact that leaders of the separatist movement often ignore. A fragmented and therefore economically weak Spain would threaten the EU, so it’s unlikely Brussels would ever strike a more accommodating stance towards the separatists. The economic turmoil that would result from independence is fairly obvious as well — Cataluña would most likely find itself a relatively small country on the periphery of Europe, without free access to the common market or even the rest of Spain.
This debate is, at this point, entirely theoretical. The Spanish government has unequivocally declared any attempt at independence to be unconstitutional; unilateral secession would be illegal, just like in the United States. Catalonians will likely continue to celebrate La Diada with protests, as they have in the four years since the movement commenced, but their grievances will fall on deaf and unwilling ears. Rather than forcing the issue and facing a future as outcasts in Brussels, Catalonian leaders would be wiser to keep their fight alive in Madrid.
one of the most misinformed and biased articles I’ve read this year.
It is noted that the author of this article dons’t knows the character of the Spaniards. Over 300 years the Catalan people was oppressed with police violence and even military (Barcelona was bombed by an average of every 50 years by the spanish army from 1714 until 1939). For Spanish people the Catalans are a Spanish conquest and belong to them.
In fact, with regard to fiscal balances, prestigious economists have indicated that Catalonia is treated like a colony. So Spanish goverment never negotiated and will negotiate with Catalonia as equals. It is rather a relationship between the metropolis and one colony.
In this situation for the catalan people there is only one way: to be independent or remain a colony. We are aware that it will not be easy, but the alternative to continue being a colony without real self-government and being mistreated both our language and culture, is worse that to be a new small state.
The military or police solutions that during these 300 years Spain has done to not let Catalonia be independent, have no possibility in the EU. It would be inconceivable that in the XXI century Barcelona was again bombarded by the Spanish army despite the fact that the rule of 50 years has already been fulfilled. We are sure that the EU will force Spain to negotiate a referendum with Catalonia when the situation is democratically unsustainable. Fear that there is an instability that causes fear to the financial markets that Spain can not pay its debt, will be the catalyst that will solve the problem. And this problem, today can only be solved by a referendum.
Forgot to say: why do you say Cataluña? You write in English so you should say Catalonia, no? If you want to use the local word for the region, then it should be Catalunya. So why do need to use the word in Castilian?
Despite the start of the article seemed well grounded, the personal summary produced by the author derived towards the traditional ‘this is only about money’. Maybe you disregard pieces of information as recent as Madrid’s banning of Catalonia’s ban to bullfighting. Just as an example: is that really about money? or maybe you are missing the simple fact that all people are entitled to self-determination? As the author correctly says, Spain minus Catalonia would be far less competitive. On the contrary, Catalonia by itself would be 8+ Billions richer with more exports than imports, with more exports to the rest of the world than to Spain. Not only that, Catalonia would be able to manage its own healthcare system, bans to bullfighting, languages of use in school, protect their deltas, finally conclude the high-speed train lines that connect Catalonia with Europe. It is a bit out of place to say that Catalonia is similar to Scotland. Scotland receives more money from London that it provides, which is exactly the opposite to Catalonia, and therefore an independent Catalonia would be financially stable whereas an independent Scotland would require some adjustments to survive. Not the same. As I said: you started well, you ended with fear, the same fear that most humans feel for change. Catalonia has as much right to independence as the 13 American colonies had centuries ago: did anyone think they would be ok without the royal guidance? not really. Only the colonies thought they could do it. Catalans also think they would be better off without Madrid’s interference and there are not many reasons to believe they are wrong with their thinking.