Matthew Cleary is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs, recognized in 2024 as the nation’s top institution for Public Affairs by US News. Specializing in Latin American politics, political institutions, democratization, and ethnic politics, Cleary has authored numerous books and journal articles on these subjects. His latest article, “When Does Backsliding Lead to Breakdown? Uncertainty and Opposition Strategies in Democracies at Risk,” co-authored with Aykut Ozturk, was published in 2022. He earned his B.A. from Notre Dame and completed his Ph.D. in 2004 at the University of Chicago.
Teddy Fisher: The leaders of Latin American countries nowadays have been more visible, populist, and charismatic than before. One example is El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele. He’s seen success with a huge crackdown on gang violence, a high approval rating, and an extreme reduction in violent crime. Simultaneously, he has made decisions seen as anti-democratic, such as running for a second term when it’s outlawed by the Salvadoran constitution. Will a leader like Bukele be a net positive for El Salvador?
Matthew Cleary: As you said, he’s very popular. He’s had some successes. I can understand why millions of Salvadorians would vote for him or support him. I understand the appeal of somebody who finally can do something about violent crime. We have a lot of reasons to think that this will not end well for El Salvador, however. He’s used tactics such as harassing the press and political opponents, and he’s used the military to intimidate Congress when he doesn’t get what he wants. Once an incumbent president starts changing term limits to try to perpetuate himself in office, it almost always ends badly. It’s a real threat to democracy and political and economic stability.
TF: Shifting gears to Venezuela, the West has made efforts to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. Maduro has made it clear that the United States is an enemy of Venezuela. What does the future of Venezuela look like? How does a country like Venezuela take such a plunge from democracy to dictatorship?
MC: Not just from democracy to dictatorship but from wealth to poverty as well. I think it’s likely Maduro will win reelection in December of this year. Maduro’s case is completely different from Bukele’s, however. Bukele, for better or for worse, is legitimately popular. He just won 85 percent of the vote. Maduro is not a popular president. Yes, he’s probably going to win the election in December, as we said, but not because he’s popular. He’s going to incorporate fraud, voter intimidation, and all sorts of other tricks. Venezuela is not a democracy today in any way, shape, or form. Maduro recently arrested his most serious opponent. The tactics being used in Venezuela are way more extreme and anti-democratic even than what we observed in El Salvador.
Some political scientists may call El Salvador an authoritarian regime, and others may use a term such as “competitive authoritarianism.” There’s no ambiguity about Venezuela. It’s an authoritarian country. Maduro is a dictator, and he’s only in power because he has the support of the military. As a result of corruption and economic mismanagement, 10 percent or 20 percent of the country doesn’t even live in Venezuela anymore. It’s created a refugee crisis unprecedented in South America. Millions of Venezuelans are leaving the country, and the government is completely incapable of doing anything to alleviate the underlying economic reasons for that exodus to begin with.
TF: Mexico’s next presidential election takes place this summer. Current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) belongs to a new left-wing party called “Morena,” and they have seen considerable success since their founding. Its nominee for this year, Claudia Sheinbaum, is heavily favored in recent polling. What are your thoughts on the election? If Sheinbaum is elected, how do you predict relations with the United States would be affected?
MC: Morena was formed in 2014, yes, and in 2018, AMLO was the first candidate to ever receive a majority of the vote in a Mexican presidential election. I think what we’re looking at is just a realignment of the Mexican party system. Mexico used to be governed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) for about 70 years. When they lost for the first time in 2000, it led to a period of decline. It wasn’t a quick decline, but today, the PRI is a shell of its former self. The big question about AMLO was whether Morena was a personal vehicle for him. Would we see Morena fade away once AMLO left politics? I’m starting to think that the answer to that question is no. Yes, Sheinbaum is very likely to win this summer. I think that marks an important milestone where Mexico has a new dominant party.
I’m not concerned about US-Mexico relations changing if she is elected. In spite of what is seen in the headlines, the two countries are so closely integrated economically, socially, and culturally through trade deals like USMCA. I don’t think any particular president coming into office can sever those bonds. If anybody wanted to do it, it would’ve been President Trump. He said a lot of nasty things, but the two countries continue to have a cooperative relationship, attacking big problems, including immigration issues and the drug trade. These are all major challenges, but they’re embedded in the context of a very complicated and close relationship between the two countries.
TF: How do you see the potential election of President Trump this year affecting US-Mexico relations?
MC: I don’t know. Trump is a wild card. My gut instinct is to stick with my earlier response and say, actually, I don’t think very much would change. The tone would change, the rhetoric may change, but the underlying relationship itself would not change. He is a wild card. There’s no other way to say it. You have to take what he says seriously, like when he talks about using the US military to intervene against the cartels on Mexican soil. That’s a very bad idea and has no chance of being effective. It may depend on whether he wakes up in a bad mood one day or whether he doesn’t.
TF: You’ve been to Southern Mexico. What is the impression of Trump, of Americans, and of border policy? Do Mexicans see the border as a political issue?
MC: Yes, I think Mexicans do view it as an issue. The current wave isn’t a Mexican wave of immigration. The mess that we’re seeing at the border right now involves refugees from many different countries, Central America, Venezuela, and even from other countries outside of the Western hemisphere. Mexican citizens are still a portion of that migrant flow, but it’s much more complicated than that. The two governments have a hard time cooperating on the drug trade issue. From the Mexican perspective, they believe the United States is asking Mexico to do all the dirty work. Americans consume the drugs, but Mexicans have to fight the drug war on their soil, and they have to take casualties in doing that. They perceive there to be a lot of hypocrisy from the United States, and that makes the Mexicans less likely to be as helpful as they could be.
Things are changing. It used to be the case that drug consumption was not nearly as big a problem in Mexico as it was in the United States. Mexico now has its own drug issues as well. The cartels are increasingly violent with each other and toward civilians. These are big problems in Mexico to an extent that wasn’t the case in the past. So, one thing that confuses me is why the governments can’t seem to cooperate on something that they both agree on. Both countries have a clear interest in trying to get rid of the cartels; that would reduce illicit drug use and reduce health problems. I’m not entirely sure why we can’t enter into a more productive relationship on those things. If Trump gets elected, I don’t think that the two countries are going to somehow become enemies, but Trump’s election could impact cooperation.
In my experience, Mexicans are heavily pro-American. They don’t like aspects of the United States, but they admire the country. Millions of Mexicans have experience living in the United States, either as tourists, documented, or undocumented migrants. One typical Mexican perspective is something to the effect of, “Hey, most of the Americans I meet are really nice people. Why is their government so crazy?” The way the United States treats refugees and migrants at the border is so inhumane. The rhetoric that comes out of Washington is really hard for them to make sense of.
TF: Can you speak to the influence of cartels in Mexican politics today?
MC: It’s scary, and it’s unprecedented. They are more influential today than they have ever been in the past. Cartels are taking a more active role in politics to make sure that people in positions of power are reachable or can be influenced by them. Now, they’re just basically running their own candidates. In the most recent election cycle, the number of assassinations of candidates was much higher than it had been in the past. We have to presume that some of that is also cartel-related. Some of the cartel corruption goes all the way to the top, or at least almost all the way to the top. I wouldn’t be surprised if more news came out about that at some point in the future, and it’s a scary situation.
TF: What is the best place that you’ve been to in Latin America? I know you spend lots of time in rural Mexico, specifically.
MC: The Mexican countryside is my favorite. I spend a lot of time in rural Puebla and Oaxaca, which are relatively poor agricultural areas. The people are so friendly. The food is awesome. The communities are very welcoming. Mexico City has its advantages too, but it’s a bustling place. I wish I could retire in rural Mexico. One of my favorite places is San Sebastián Tlacotepec in southern Puebla, where some of my friends are from. Of course, Oaxaca, specifically Oaxaca City, is a beautiful old colonial town, very popular with tourists, but it’s not a beach area. If you’re into arts and crafts, indigenous cultures, and dance, then Oaxaca is a great place to be.
A few years ago, I had the opportunity to spend some time in Ayacucho, Peru, which is a mountainous area. I really felt like I was back in Southern Mexico. The dress and some of the customs are different from Mexico, but the vibe is quite similar. That really struck me. The two places are thousands of miles away, but they’re remarkably similar.
TF: Are you working on any books, projects, or articles that you’re excited about right now?
MC: Yes. I’ve been working for a long time on a project related to my research in Southern Mexico, but the project has been derailed a couple of times. Hopefully, sometime in the near future, you’ll see a book come out from me on indigenous politics in Southern Mexico. Mexico, like a lot of Latin American countries, has tried to turn toward a more multicultural legal framework for incorporating indigenous communities into the country more equally. My research is trying to understand how well that has worked and whether or not the multicultural model produces better outcomes in the way that indigenous communities are governed and how they’re incorporated into the broader countries that they’re a part of.
*This interview has been edited for length and clarity