“The Department of Defense has reached unprecedented levels of cooperation with the Jordanian armed forces…We have done that in light of what’s happening in Syria.” — Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, August 2012
As a result of the civil strife in Syria, approximately 1.5 million civilians have been displaced from their homes. About 400,000 of these Syrian refugees have flooded into Jordan, putting immense strain on its economy and social services. Obama has pledged $200 million in supplemental aid to Jordan to deal with this mass influx of Syrian refugees. Though the primary reason for this aid is undoubtedly an urgent humanitarian crisis, the readiness of the U.S. to provide substantial economic and military support can be traced to a history of cooperation between the two nations. Since Jordan’s independence in 1946, it has been a key ally in the turbulent region, and in return, the United States has served as its economic bedrock. Historically, the amount of aid supplied has been contingent upon the degree of Jordan’s cooperation with Western political interests, such as efforts towards resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and establishing regional stability, which entails the eradication of extremist violence.
Since World War II and the removal of the British mandate, the Hashemite Kingdom has ruled over Jordan. This 90% Sunni Muslim nation of about 6.5 million is composed of native Jordanians of Bedouin descent and a large Palestinian population, as well as several other minority groups. Bordered by Syria, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, and scarce in natural resources, Jordan’s political climate and its economic wellbeing are deeply impacted by regional turbulence.
Throughout its history, there has been a consistent pattern of incentive schemes to ensure cooperation with Western interests. As Jordan played an increasing role in the Arab-Israeli peace process in the 1990’s, the United States substantially increased its aid. Jordan signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994 – one of only two Arab states (Egypt is the other) to have done so. Congress approved $100 million of U.S. military supplies to enhance Jordan’s ability to maintain border security and implement terms of the peace treaty with Israel. Jordan received $300 million in 2000, in addition to annual aid funds, in an effort to support the Wye River Memorandum, a U.S.-sponsored Israeli-Palestinian agreement.
Jordan has a lot at stake in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: its enormous Palestinian population, made up of both Jordanians and refugees, poses a substantial threat to the political dominance of Hashemite rule. The history of the Palestinian threat can be traced to Jordan’s alignment with Egypt, Syria, and Iraq in the Six Day War against Israel, which ended in an Israeli victory and the take over of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. As a result of the war, an estimated 300,000 Palestinians were displaced, most of whom settled in Jordan in the West Bank. The period following the war saw an upsurge in the activity and numbers of Arab Palestinian paramilitary elements within the state of Jordan. These armed militias, led mostly by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) were successfully quelled by Jordanian armed forces in 1970. This conflict, known as Black September, resulted in the death of thousands (mostly Palestinians), and expulsion of many to Lebanon. There is still a large population of Palestinians living in Jordan, whose presence remains an underlying threat to Hashemite authority.
The Hashemite Kingdom cooperation with American goals in the Middle East is largely due to economic incentive. As Jordan played an increasing role in the Arab-Israeli peace process in the 1990’s, the United States substantially increased its aid. Jordan signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994 – one of only two Arab states (Egypt is the other) to have done so. Congress approved $100 million of U.S. military supplies to enhance Jordan’s ability to maintain border security and implement terms of the peace treaty with Israel. Jordan received $300 million in 2000, in addition to annual aid funds, in an effort to support the Wye River Memorandum, a U.S.-sponsored Israeli-Palestinian agreement.
Though Jordanian policies towards the conflict have been influenced by several actors, including its domestic Palestinian population and neighboring Arab nations, by and large, policy decisions have been directed by economic inducement. Jordan is dependent on funds from the U.S. because their financial situation is very unstable. They have minimal natural resources, few domestic markets, high unemployment, and an enormous budget deficit. Jordan is dependent on Western investment and aid in order to build infrastructure, balance the budget, and spur economic growth. For better or worse, these funds are critical to sustaining the Jordanian political, social, and economic structures as they stand.
American involvement in the Middle East after 9/11 led to a reinforcement of relations with Jordan. On September 28, 2001, President Bush signed a bill to implement a free trade agreement between the two nations. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Washington doubled its annual grants to Jordan to around $450 million: $250 million in economic aid and $200 million in military assistance. At the request of the Bush Administration, Jordan received an additional $125 million in a supplemental aid. In 2003, to help offset the effects of the war with Iraq on Jordan’s economy and security, “aid was almost doubled”, amounting to $250 million in economic and $198 million in military assistance, with a supplemental $700 million in economic and $406 million in military funding. But this strengthening of ties wasn’t just an effort to buttress U.S. security interests by manipulating the Jordanian government. Jordan was being targeted as a Western sympathizer, and the United States was trying to protect it from these attacks. On August 19, 2005, a rocket attack apparently aimed at two U.S. ships in the Jordanian port of Aqaba killed a Jordanian soldier and injured another. In November of that year, three suicide bombings blasted hotels in Amman, Jordan, killing at least 57 people and wounding 115. Al-Qaeda affiliates claimed responsibility for both, contending that Jordan had been targeted because of its friendly relations with the United States. An anonymous counterterrorism official reportedly states, “Having suffered serious losses from terrorist attacks on their own soil, they are keenly aware of the significant threat posed by extremists.” These incidences of domestic terrorism attacks have incited Jordan to become a key ally of the U.S. in the War on Terror.
Though constrained economically by operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2008, the U.S. nevertheless demonstrated its strong relations with Jordan by promising a huge sum of $660 million in annual assistance to Jordan over a five-year period from 2010 to 2014. Under the terms of their Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), this deal commits the United States to providing $360 million per year in Economic Support Funds (ESF) and $300 million per year in Foreign Military Financing (FMF), subject to availability of funds. According to the Jordanian government, the agreement “reaffirms the strategic partnership and cooperation between the two countries.”
For both the United States and the Jordanian government, the stability of the current governing structure is top priority, although for different reasons. In the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings, Jordan is dealing with calls for greater freedoms and democratic reforms. This has entailed increased domestic pressure to speed the pace of promised reforms to improve economic conditions and reduce public corruption. Additionally, the global economic downturn has highlighted the high rates of poverty, unemployment, and limited natural resources, exacerbating Jordan’s large and unsustainable budget deficit. In 2008, thousands gathered in cities around Jordan in protest, demonstrating against high food and fuel prices and calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir al-Rifai. This movement of unrest, coupled with the economic recession and the recent influx Syrian refugees, has increased critical scrutiny of Hashemite governance. The United States has an interest in improving democratic transparency throughout the region, but its relations with Jordan demonstrate that geopolitical positioning is a higher priority, especially in light of recent complications with Egypt.
Considering all of these elements, the enormous sums of aid pledged by the United States should not come as a surprise. American economic and military support for Jordan seems to strategically imperative, and has been largely beneficial for both nations. The United States has helped Jordan maintain its stability and benefitted Jordan’s economy, and in return Jordan has steadily assisted the United States with several key initiatives such as Arab-Israeli peace and anti-terrorism efforts. A report on the impact of foreign aid shows a “95% correlation among foreign aid and GDP in Jordan,” an indication that, unlike aid in other nations (*cough Africa cough*) aid to Jordan is working, and is mostly being funneled into the right channels instead of the wrong pockets. This same study showed that aid is “mostly used in productive sectors or in building the infrastructure which help in increasing the productivity of the over all economy.” In return, Jordan is undoubtedly the current best ally of the West in the Middle East, Israel aside. Given all of the strategic benefits, this alliance seems easy to justify, and easy to maintain: King Abdullah II’s familiarity with English, western education, and secular standing make him appealing to Western media. David Schenker’s op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, “Saving Jordan’s King Abdullah Must Be a U.S. Priority” ends by suggesting that a failure to save the king “would be decidedly less advantageous to U.S. interests.”
Then again, we should proceed with caution. We have been here before, propping up a dictator who would otherwise have failed, choosing the lesser of two evils in order to support our goals, which has been especially unsuccessful in the Middle East (i.e. Shah Pahlavi in Iran, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, or Hosni Mubarak in Egypt). Even though Jordan is our strongest ally in the region, an endless policy of foreign aid, which is what the current trajectory seems to be, is not entirely prudent. It is unclear how much longer the U.S. will be sustaining the Jordanian economy, or what exit strategies are being considered. Additionally, Jordan is far from democratic, which makes it more vulnerable to popular uprising– a definite possibility in a region that has seen a lot of turmoil recently. Jordan offers very little by way of civil liberties and property right. Getting a job has at least two requirements: being a member of the right tribe and paying the ubiquitous bribe. If democratic reforms do effectively take hold, this is also threatening to the interests of the U.S., as popular opinion is highly antagonistic towards the West, especially on the topic of Israel.
The reality of aid for both the government of Jordan and of the United States is contingent upon its implications for domestic strategic interests. For the time being, our interests are aligned with this regime; however, this is an insufficient basis to pursue an endless policy of foreign aid. The U.S. has made itself a reputation for interfering and overreaching with its so-called helping hand. Perhaps Americans should consider if it’s in our long-term interest to repeat the same mistakes, over and over again.