Escape from Anarchy: Do the Afghan Elections Offer Hope?

Almost 13 years ago, Hamid Karzai was selected to be the president of Afghanistan in the wake of the American invasion. Karzai garnered considerable support from American politicians for his purported liberal and pro-Western philosophy. Unfortunately, his pro-Western credentials did not translate into a successful reign. Domestically, the nation faces a rapidly developing problem of drug use, with approximately 1 in 5 Afghans thought to be consistent drug users. Afghanistan is also the world’s largest producer of illicit opium, with opium production rising steadily throughout Karzai’s tenure as president. However, this pales in comparison to the gravity of the recent growth in the Taliban insurgency. The Taliban, once thought to be on the brink of utter defeat, have made an emboldened return. The Taliban have launched several attacks on Afghan troops this year, capitalizing on the US military withdrawal in May. By trying to gain control of the poppy-producing Helmand region in search of more funds, they pose a convincing threat to the sovereignty and success of the central government.

Despite the support he enjoyed early in his presidency, Karzai’s actions  alienated him from the nation’s primary supporter, the US. His reluctance to sign a security pact with the Americans, coupled with his public criticism of the American presence in Afghanistan, soured relations between the allies. Karzai’s reputation was further tarnished by the revelation that he received millions of US dollars from the CIA; his admission of this undisclosed exchange proved an embarrassment for the American government and weakened his standing internally.

In the context of the nation’s many problems, Afghanistan must certainly be lauded for its attempt to hold nationwide elections. However, in a country ranked as the third most corrupt in the world by Transparency International, it came as no surprise that the election was marred by allegations of fraud. The Afghan national elections consisted of two rounds, with the two most popular candidates from the first round competing for a majority in the second. Though Ashraf Ghani was initially crowned the victor by over a million votes, the result was challenged by the supporters of Abdullah Abdullah, leading to a three-month stand-off between the opponents. Ultimately, the UN supervised a review of all ballots, declaring 850,000 ballots, predominantly in support of Ghani, illegitimate. Ghani, nevertheless, prevailed with 55 percent of the vote. In an attempt to establish a measure of cohesion and stability in the volatile state, the US intervened and brokered a deal between Ghani and Abdullah, allowing Abdullah to play a part in governing the nation as chief executive.

So where does this leave Afghanistan? Ghani is certainly a qualified candidate for the post, having worked for the World Bank with a focus on international development. He has sent out signals that he intends to be a strong but liberal leader, something that Afghanistan lacks and, some would argue, desperately needs. Ghani’s readiness to share power with a bitter rival is significant, as it seems to reflect his willingness to cooperate and prioritize the good of the nation. His administration has worked to make Afghanistan’s heavily bureaucratic government more efficient, merging several entities and even firing the provincial governor of Kunduz, a region ravaged by chaotic militias. In his first speech as president, he also made progressive moves towards Afghan peace, calling for the Taliban to end violence and engage in peaceful negotiations with the government. Ghani has also reiterated that his wife, Rula, will continue having a public role working with refugees; this is a hopeful sign that the new government will promote women’s rights in a chauvinistic society.

Abdullah, too, is a highly educated and experienced leader who served Afghan’s foreign minister in the early years of Karzai’s rule. He is also a member of the minority Tajik group, offering an alternative to the hegemony of the Pashtuns who have dominated Afghan politics. This offers hope that relations between ethic groups within Afghanistan, along with the nation’s foreign relations, will improve.

Indeed, the new government has sent out strong signals that they are willing to cooperate with foreign powers. Ghani’s first official act as president was to sign a new security pact with the US that will keep American troops in Afghanistan past 2014. After Karzai’s previous vacillation on the pact, this appears to be a strong commitment to continued American military relations. On a more surprising, but equally welcome, note, Ghani also seems more inclined to pursue cordial relations with Pakistan. The two neighbours have had a tense relationship due to their historically porous border, which has allowed the free flow of Taliban members, drugs and weapons. However, as of late, both sides seem to be approaching diplomatic ties with greater optimism. President Mamnoon Hussain, of Pakistan, was the only head of state present in Ghani’s inauguration ceremony, while Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has also invited Ghani to Pakistan to improve their relations.

However, despite the many indications that Afghanistan’s new president will be more active and progressive than his predecessor, there are several cautionary signs that suggest there might be less change than hoped. Ghani rose to the forefront of Afghan politics by allying himself with the former militia commander, Abdul Rashid Dostum. Dostum is a polarizing figure in Afghanistan; a strong anti-Taliban leader, he is accused of war crimes including mistreatment of Taliban fighters. By allying himself with a hardliner who has demonstrated disregard for human rights, Ghani has taken a risky path to leadership by casting himself as both a reformer and a strongman. Much of his success will depend on how much control he has over such factions in government.

Ghani has also shown reluctance to distance himself from some of Karzai’s policies. Karzai’s last act as president was to oversee the trial of five men accused of gang raping four women. While their crime was a horrific one, Karzai’s response to national anger was to vouchsafe a mockery of a trial. The defense lawyers were openly threatened and the result was pre-determined. As president, Ghani upheld the results of this kangaroo court and had the five men executed. Though he may have committed himself to the betterment of women’s rights, he seems unwilling or unready to make the foundational changes necessary to improve Afghanistan’s judicial and legislative processes.

Overall, the new leadership does offer hope for a more progressive future. Ghani and Abdullah are united in their desire to defeat the Taliban and unite Afghanistan under a strong central government, and, individually, are strong leaders with progressive philosophies and modern outlooks. They have come to power in a difficult and crucial time for the Afghan people. Their future success will depend on whether they will be able to put aside their political differences and cooperate to achieve their shared aims. They must also find a way to distance themselves from Karzai’s failed policies and the socio-political instability that has undercut the Afghan government since 2001. If they are able to do so, they will have a chance at reshaping Afghanistan’s future and pulling it back from the brink of anarchy.