Relations between Poland and Russia have never been described as warm. While their robust economic cooperation may have had a mutually positive impact in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, any such progress or thawing of Cold War anxieties has been lost today. To Poland’s southeast, Ukraine is embroiled in a highly controversial civil war that many see as orchestrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. To the east of Poland lies the authoritarian Belarus, a Russian ally and member of the Eurasian Economic Union — Russia’s post-Soviet answer to the European Union. Meanwhile, to the north lies the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad as well as Lithuania, a Polish ally that has recently had to reckon with increasing levels of paranoia over Russian aggression. With an exposed Eastern flank and highly negative overtures from the Russian government, Poland is growing increasingly worried about the future of its sovereignty and economic security.
As the situation in the eastern Ukraine has heated up, cooled down, and heated up ad nauseam, Western countries have progressively built a sanctions regime targeting the Russian economy. While the effectiveness of these measures has only continued to garner controversy, as Russia has only begrudgingly pushed for little other than a ceasefire, the Polish government has been a strong proponent of continuing and deepening sanctions against Russia. Even though this fervor comes at no small cost to the Poles — Russia is Poland’s fifth largest export partner and second largest import partner — the government has barely hesitated in continuing its efforts. Former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who is the current President of the European Council, has been instrumental in building the sanctions regime against Russia after its annexation of Crimea. In retaliation to what it perceives as economic warfare, Russia has launched counter-sanctions aimed at crippling its neighbors’ economies. For example, it has continually sanctioned fish imports and other products from Poland, which, despite their negligible economic effect, sends a clear political message to the Polish government. Recently, however, the French government has pushed back on further action, ultimately hoping to end sanctions against the Russian federation. There have also been discussions in Berlin to end the sanctions, which one political analyst described as being not in Germany’s best interest, a sentiment that both the German Vice-Chancellor and Energy Minister support.
In the realms of Polish diplomacy, the stakes are also getting higher and higher. Issues recently arose once more when Poland refused entry to Russian administrators of the Crimean peninsula, citing European sanctions that allegedly ban these officials from entering the country. However, the officials were on their way to a meeting under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), an intergovernmental group that has been monitoring the situation in Ukraine. The diplomatic incident that ensued has yet to be resolved.
The squabbles don’t end there. Over the past few weeks, the Russian ambassador to Poland released a slew of virulently anti-Polish diatribes during television interviews in which he described the 1939 Soviet invasion of Poland and the subsequent violent oppression of Polish freedom fighters as a “defensive measure” and referred to Poland as “western Belarus and western Ukraine,” an evident attempt at insulting Polish national sentiment. The Ambassador went on to accuse the Polish government of contributing to the escalation of World War Two by failing to stop the Nazi onslaught. In shock, the Polish government has demanded explanations from the Russian Ambassador twice in the span of a week. Having caused an international scandal, the Russian Ambassador retracted his comments and officially apologized to the Polish government, but the damage was done.
By evoking Russian domination of Poland, the ambassador’s remarks hit a nerve in a country whose national identity is still deeply tied to the experience of Soviet rule. As a result, the Polish political class is prepared to go a long way to ensure it can assert its sovereignty in an insecure geopolitical environment. Indeed, hostilities between Moscow and Warsaw are not limited to the symbolic displays of contempt described above. Over the past decade, the Polish military has embarked on a thorough “modernization” program that involved heavily increasing its defense spending. The country is on track to surpass its NATO commitment of 2 percent of GDP to defense spending in 2015. Consistent increases in the military budget that began in 2005 have boosted sales for such weapons manufacturers as Lockheed Martin, which has reaped huge profits due to anxiety in Poland and the greater region. In addition, Poland is planning on purchasing multiple submarines from Norway and is seeking out willing sellers of cruise missiles. It is also looking to potentially supplement its fleet with American Tomahawk missiles or French submarines equipped with naval cruise missiles.
As part of an initiative to combat perceived Russian aggression, Poland is also strengthening its defense ties with other Central and Eastern European nations. Whereas the consensus among all European nations has obviously faltered, the former-Soviet bloc countries of the European Union continue to stand resolutely together. For example, Poland has recently launched a counter-intelligence sharing measure with Slovakia, and plans on increasing cooperation with other nations in the region in what may be construed as a loose, Russophobic intelligence alliance. Further, it has claimed a new status as “security guarantor” of the Baltic States and has been vociferously pushing for NATO ground troops in the region, which would go against a series of accords in the 1990s between NATO and the Russian government that limited the stationing of NATO troops in countries that border the Russian Federation. While there has been tumult and disagreement between the Central European neighbors, especially members of the four nation Visegrad Group alliance, over the issue of refugees and border security, the countries are all firmly against Russia’s belligerence as they continue strengthening their military alliance.
As France and Germany think aloud about possible overtures to Russia in order to address issues in both Syria and Ukraine, Poland and other former Eastern Bloc nations fear that the unanimous resolve among European nations to stand together against Russia is crumbling. As a result, now more than ever Poland is trying to close ranks with its Baltic and Central European neighbors through both military, diplomatic, and intelligence channels, all the while conducting a diplomatic war of attrition with Russia.
The ongoing diplomatic turmoil playing out between Warsaw and Moscow shows no signs of abating. Current regional tensions have disturbed a Polish political class that remembers all too well being caught between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union in 1939 with the Fourth Partition.
Photo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland