Trains aren’t sexy. They’re those lumbering, screaming steel cages billowing smoke as they rumble slowly along to their destination. Or are they those fun little toys that five-year-old children play with on the kitchen floor? Either way, they aren’t the future-that’s reserved for speedy planes, autonomous cars, and jet packs, right?
No. It’s time we rethink this equation (jet packs are pretty cool though!). Trains have already been established as a primary mode of transportation in certain pockets around the globe, most significantly in Japan. In turn, Japan has reaped the rewards of investing in high-speed rail infrastructure. Its citizens ride along a well-developed and interconnected domestic rail system; the country sits at the forefront of research and development in the field, and it has begun to invest in installing similar systems internationally. Other nations can and should follow Japan’s example. High-speed trains not only provide economic advantages, but are poised for revolutionary innovations, warranting a central role in our transportation infrastructure deep into the 21st century and beyond.
The Japanese rail system, called Shinkansen, did not appear overnight. Its first line opened over fifty years ago, in 1964, serving 11 million riders during its inaugural year. It has seen steady growth and expansion, serving over 300 million riders annually as of 2014 and over 10 billion riders throughout its history. The system runs along six main lines, connecting cities across Japan’s narrow frame to population centers such as Tokyo, Yokohama, Kyoto, and Osaka with trains running at a blistering rate of nearly 200 miles per hour. Amazingly, there have been zero fatalities from derailment or collision, and the average delay is under 36 seconds. This system has impacted the Japanese economy immensely over the last 50 years. It has transformed the movement of people and goods in the region, boosting tourism, reducing the productivity gap between peripheral and urban areas, and connecting suppliers and firms in previously unattainable ways. Overall gains in productivity have been central to the justification of such projects in Japan.
The Shinkansen is not without its pitfalls, however. First, projects to expand the system can be tremendously expensive endeavors, costing billions of dollars to bring each fresh rail system online. Second, tickets aren’t cheap; a seat on a bullet train typically sits around $130. The price scheme of high-speed rail systems is ultimately the x-factor in determining the viability of projects globally. Without robust ridership numbers, governments will struggle to justify funding these projects. Japan has sufficiently invested in its system, but this has not been entirely the case in other developed nations.
China, India, Western Europe, and the United States are all currently grappling with the future of high-speed rails in their respective nations. These countries, given their densely populated urban centers and governments’ financial ability (and willingness) to support such projects, are ripe for high-speed train expansion. According to the World Bank analysis of construction costs globally, China pays approximately $17-21 million per kilometer of track, Europe between $25-39 million per kilometer, and California approximately $52 million. Costs vary due to a variety of factors, including topography, weather, and land acquisition. Despite these seemingly prohibitive costs, China and India are moving forward with ambitious high-speed rail projects of their own, apparently banking on a high return to their investment.
In September, China opened the world’s longest, and somewhat controversial, rail line connecting Hong Kong to the mainland, which will likely disrupt current transit patterns in the region. For less than one-third of the price of a plane ticket, people can now make the journey from Hong Kong to Beijing in under 9 hours (as opposed to a 5.5 hour-flight). Additionally, there has been discussion about constructing an international line connecting Kunming, China and Kolkata, India, passing through Myanmar and Bangladesh. This too is not the only development for high-speed rails in India. The Indian government awarded Japan the contract to build a Shinkansen-like Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train as well as to loan the Indian government nearly $13 billion to finance the project. The project is expected to cost $27 million per kilometer of track, roughly equivalent to similar undertakings in Spain and France. Japan’s active investment stance extends to the United States as well, where it is hoping to lend Texas $300 million to partially finance a Dallas-Houston bullet train to run in 2024. Although less expensive than the World Bank anticipated for California, this is estimated to cost $39 million per kilometer of track.
Skeptics of these plans suggest repurposing these finances toward repairing existing infrastructure or funding more urgent domestic priorities. These are certainly valid concerns and should not be taken lightly, but it is also critical to look further into the future to better understand the feasibility of more revolutionary technological breakthroughs: maglev and the hyperloop. Maglev and the hyperloop fundamentally alter the transportation equation in ways that other transportation technologies cannot. Planes will likely continue to be marginally faster, larger, and more efficient in the coming decades, but a Concorde-like development upending the industry seems unlikely. Autonomous vehicles, conversely, do represent a potentially groundbreaking technological breakthrough; however, substantive change will likely only be fully realized upon networks of these vehicles flooding the roads. The impact of a single autonomous vehicle increases as other vehicles enter into use as well (with the long-term vision of exclusively autonomous roadways), and reaching this stage of development may take substantially longer than simply commercializing the technology.
Maglev technology works as follows: “by using both permanent and electromagnets to create a current on the rail, the trains travel along on what is essentially a small cushion of air (hence ‘maglev,’ from magnetic levitation).” These trains have been tested to run at speeds of over 370 miles per hour, increasing already-blazing bullet speeds by over 50 percent, and are projected to be in use in Japan within the coming decade. China plans to test similar technology by 2020, and discussions about maglev routes through the I-95 Corridor of the US permeate infrastructure conversations domestically as well.
The hyperloop technology may be even more exciting. The hyperloop leverages both maglev and near zero-pressure tubes to press the limits of our transport capabilities. Hyperloop Transit Technologies, one of two major hyperloop developers, recently unveiled “emission and noise-free operation at a maximum speed of [760 mph],” Mach 1, or the speed of sound. The first home to the hyperloop will be a Dubai-Abu Dhabi track that is expected to be fully operational within the next two to five years. Saudi Arabia has also shown tremendous interest in acquiring this technology, as sheer amazement at its revolutionary nature is boundless.
Whether the hyperloop will outlive its initial hype and prestige is yet to be seen. Real investment exists beyond high-profile media coverage and grandiose statements from Elon Musk and others. Hyperloop One, for example, is currently building a $500 million research center in Spain in addition to other fundraising efforts. Concerns about safety, reliability, feasibility, and price persist; however, with increasing investment and development over the coming years, such concerns will likely begin to subside as the technology reaches maturity.
Neither the hyperloop nor maglev will significantly impact the way in which the world operates this year, next year, or likely even within the next ten years. Investing in high speed rail infrastructure today isn’t about next year or perhaps even the next ten years, it’s about the next fifty years. It’s about creating a 21st and 22nd century sustainable model for the transport of people and goods. This future of transportation will not magically appear. It will take a conscious, global effort to bring the future to fruition, and hopefully to accelerate this future to the present day. Investing in future generations requires neglecting some needs of the present, but this is not a black and white calculation. The Shinkansen has provided real benefits to Japan, and although this technology may not be right for every developed nation today, for some it is. High-speed rails can accelerate near-medium term growth and carry a better future for our largest international economies safely into the station.
Photo: “Shinkansen 700T train on a test run on the Taiwan High Speed Rail in June 2006”
