On January 23rd, a new king acceded the throne as head of the House of Saud and leader of Saudi Arabia in a smooth and uneventful transition. The new King Salman vowed continuity and an adherence to the policies of his predecessor. However, such a peaceful transition is not indicative of the restive nature of the Kingdom’s neighbors.
Saudi Arabia is highly involved in conflicts throughout the Middle East, including in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, Lebanon, Egypt and Libya, largely through the supply of financial and military support. However, in this era of turmoil, such support is becoming increasingly ineffective, and the rest of the Middle East is moving on without Saudi Arabia.
In 2005, King Salman’s late predecessor, King Abdullah, came to power. When crowned, King Abdullah made promises of far-reaching reforms, and upon news of his death in January, world leaders across the globe hailed him as a vision of progress and peace, despite reports of widespread human rights abuses. The pandering of world leaders is indicative of the power that the oil-rich nation maintains both regionally and within the global arena, but this powerhouse status may soon be usurped. Although Saudi Arabia is still a major shaper of regional politics through its select support of friendly and often fraudulent regimes, such nations and politics are changing and beginning to move on without Saudi Arabia.
In Yemen, a former stronghold of Saudi foreign power, major shifts in power have occurred. The capital, Sana’a, has been engulfed in conflict and political upheaval with Houthi forces storming the city and overthrowing the government in a coup d’état. The Houthi are a Shi’a minority based in Saada, a region on the Saudi borderlands. In March 2014, Saudi Arabia declared them to be a terrorist organization.
Moreover, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is based in Yemen, and along with the US, Saudi Arabia is involved in attacks on AQAP strongholds. However, the Houthi are also long-time enemies of AQAP, and US and Saudi attacks on Al Qaeda only serve to bolster Houthi influence. This is a worrying predicament for the new King Salman, as the rise of a Shi’a party in Yemen sparks fears of Iranian interference, as well as a possible impact on Saudi’s internal situation, with ongoing discontent amongst Shi’a populations in the Eastern Regions. The Saudi influence in Yemen in waning and a Houthi government will only drive Yemen further away from Saudi power.
In Syria and Iraq, Saudi Arabia was found to have been a main financial backer of ISIS operations throughout the first years of the Syrian civil war. Saudi support and the religious connections between the Kingdom and ISIS (although, Saudi Wahabi clerics recently denounced ISIS’s form of Wahabism) is an issue the late King Abdullah sought to address through joining the US-led coalition against ISIS in 2014. This change in approach was a necessary adjustment to align Saudi Arabia with the international approach to ISIS.
Further involvement in Libya through the backing of militias, and in Egypt by their support of the corrupt military regime of El-Sisi, only highlights how deeply involved Saudi Arabia is in the Middle East region. However, their support for unpopular groups cannot be maintained for much longer. Indeed, in recent weeks El-Sisi has signaled a change in Saudi-Egyptian relations, perhaps most blatantly seen in the leaks of El-Sisi slandering Saudi and other Gulf nations.
Closer to home, in Bahrain, the Saudi government, along with other Gulf nations, has provided stalwart political, economic and military support to the Sunni government and has denounced all Shi’a opposition parties as Iranian proxies. During the Bahraini protests of 2011, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates provided military reinforcements in support of a government crackdown. Although the violence in Bahrain is not sectarian in nature, the Saudis do not wish to see the rise of Shi’a power, particularly given Bahrain’s proximity to Iran and Saudi’s own problems with a Shi’a minority. Yet, the protests on Bahraini streets continue; Saudi support can only go so far.
The United Arab Emirates has long been a resolute aide-de-camp of Saudi Arabia. However, relations with the UAE are no longer so secure, as neither President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan nor the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (de facto ruler of the country) were in attendance at King Abdullah’s funeral, signaling a discord between the two Gulf nations. All is not well in the Gulf, and former allies such as the UAE, as well as Qatar, are no longer as reliant on Saudi Arabian power.
Further afield, Saudi relations with Europe and the US are also not as steadfast as they once were. With a reduced dependency on Saudi oil and the increased focus on human rights issues, for the West, Saudi Arabia is no longer the stable Middle Eastern ally it used to be. Moreover, despite Saudi protests, the ongoing US-Iranian nuclear talks usher in a new era for the region, and if successful, may change Middle Eastern power dynamics. The deep-rooted conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran will have to be addressed if the West re-establishes foreign policy relations with the Shi’a nation.
Major shifts are occurring in many of the nations that surround Saudi Arabia. Although the Kingdom was once, and in many respects still remains, a major influencer of Middle Eastern politics, shifts in new directions are being seen throughout the region. If Saudi Arabia seeks to maintain regional power, it too will have to change.
These fast needed changes may soon be addressed by the rise of the next generation of Saudi monarchs. King Salman’s accession to the throne brought major changes in the Saudi government structure. Perhaps the most significant of these changes was in the promotion of Salman’s nephew, Prince Mohammd Al Nayef, to deputy Crown Prince, putting him first in line to the throne of the next generation; Al Nayef’s is known for his focus on counterterrorism and security, as well as his strong ties to Washington. The appointment of younger royals, such as Al Nayef, indicates potential changes in Saudi foreign policy and greater international alignment in the region. However, rapidity is key, and whether this shift in foreign policy will occur soon has yet to be seen.
Saudi Arabia will have to rethink its regional strategy if it seeks to maintain calm and influence both internally and within neighboring territories. Considering the fall in OPEC oil prices, causing a deficit of US$ 38.6 billion, a change to the Kingdom’s foreign policy is fast needed. Saudi Arabia can no longer hope to rely on stagnant foreign policies of monetary and military funding. In Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, the UAE and Iran circumstances are rapidly changing; the Middle East looks set to move on with or without the Saudi Kingdom.