Majority Leader or Minority Revolution

Frank Underwood might be a Democrat, but it was Republican Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Ca.) that Kevin Spacey shadowed to learn the ins and outs of politics on Capitol Hill. The House of Cards production team even employed McCarthy’s office as the model for Underwood’s. And like Underwood, McCarthy is moving up in the world: He’s now the next House Majority Leader — a position recently abdicated by Representative Eric Cantor (R-Va.) after Cantor’s June 10 defeat in his district’s Republican Primary. Since Cantor’s challenger was David Brat, a red-blooded economics professor, many have taken his downfall as a sign that a Tea Party-flavored storm may be brewing. But such a forecast fails to accurately assess the coming climate. Even in light of Brat’s dark horse victory, McCarthy’s ascension seems poised to limit change in his party’s politics.

McCarthy’s acquisition of the coveted position of House Majority Leader represents a stratospheric rise for the California representative, who only first took office in 2006. At the time, he won with more than 70 percent of his district’s vote—about the same percentage awarded him in his most recent re-election in 2012; both 2008 and 2010 saw him run virtually unopposed. His race for Majority Leader was equally free of competition, since he received ringing endorsements for the position from such high-profile Republicans as Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.) and Rep. Frank Upton (R-Mich.). Although a slew of politicians — particularly far-right ones — were rumored for the job, McCarthy (not a Tea Partier) got it. Even the seat’s old occupant backed McCarthy, saying that he would do an “outstanding” job if promoted.

And what a job it is — the Majority Leader’s role in steering the platform and actions of the party is second only to that of the Speaker of the House, and if McCarthy takes the former position, he may eventually assume the latter. Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio), the current Speaker of the House, is 64 years old and rumors suggest he might trade in his speakership for retirement soon. Cantor may have not only lost his own role, but also the chance to become Speaker, and McCarthy, only 49, may become the heir to that powerful chair.

McCarthy’s personal element — from targeted calls to arranging dinners and events for fellow politicians — has been cited as a pillar beneath his rise. It’s either scary or comforting — depending whom you ask — that McCarthy’s similarities to Underwood are even deeper than workplace design and a knack for promotions. McCarthy is known for his ability to build personal relationships, and has a slew of political allies — he is good at making friends and smart when using them. McCarthy acted fast to indicate his interest in assuming Cantor’s job, and one of the first things his staff did was rank other House members in terms of their level of support for the California representative (a technique that perhaps inspired Underwood’s many uses of the office whiteboard to assess political landscapes). McCarthy then called upon his friends, starting at the top of the list, for endorsements. McCarthy’s personal element — from targeted calls to arranging dinners and events for fellow politicians — has been cited as a pillar beneath his rise.

The perception McCarthy has cultivated as a practical politician — and his likely position at the helm of his party — should stymie most Democratic concerns about the Republican radicalization heralded by Brat’s victory. Though Brat is a Benghazi truther and vocally fearful of a new Hitler rising “quite easily” in a godless America, McCarthy is a classic pro-business conservative. With a mixed, relatively centrist record like Cantor, McCarthy has alternatively vowed to take down regulations monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and spearheaded farm and flood insurance bills. He also eschews the perception of Republicans as stuck in the 20th century, acting as his party’s liaison for Silicon Valley, which falls in his district. Perhaps more telling than his votes are his connections and supporters; in contrast to the Tea Party’s anti-insider mantra, McCarthy works consistently with a number of big lobbying firms and corporations, and Politico named Goldman Sachs and American Express among his staunchest allies.

In terms of his conservative checklist, health care is a little cloudy for McCarthy. Although he’s a general in the war on Obamacare, recent Tea Party efforts to cut veteran’s health benefits aren’t something McCarthy is likely to champion. One of his first major actions was to urge President Bush to up healthcare reforms for veterans, and it’s a consistent issue for him; McCarthy’s request for a Government Accountability Office investigation of waiting times for veteran care was an essential prerequisite for the recent Veterans Affairs legislation that President Barack Obama is expected to sign this summer.

All of this points to a Republican Party aligning itself more with beltway Washington politics than with Brat’s brand of anti-establishment conservatism. All of this points to a Republican Party aligning itself more with beltway Washington politics than with Brat’s brand of anti-establishment conservatism. But a Tea Party revolution is not the pundits’ only shoddy prophecy. Many have also said that Cantor’s demise has crushed hopes for immigration reform. ABC’s Political Director Rick Klein put it bluntest when he said, “Immigration reform is dead.” Cantor supported a compromise measure that would be lenient towards children, but still did not provide amnesty for working adults. Brat used this against him in the primary, and certainly, immigration reform faces high hurdles, but the change in the leadership won’t be one. McCarthy may be a red-blooded conservative who toes the party line on most issues, but he bleeds purple on immigration, and has even encouraged amnesty provisions for illegal workers.

In general, using Cantor’s loss to Brat as a sign of things to come is hasty and ill-advised. It’s tempting to take such a cataclysmic event — the first successful primary challenge of a House Majority Leader in history — and apply it widely. Many are trying to draw lines to 2016, wondering if pro-immigration Republican contenders like former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) should temper their rhetoric for a party increasingly hostile to liberal immigration laws. However, strategists claim that Cantor’s loss was “the result of particular circumstances that cannot easily be replicated in other races.”

That other Republicans facing Tea Party challenges this election season seem to have little trouble lends credence to that idea. Only seven Republicans are facing such challenges, and most seem like closed cases. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) waltzed by the Tea Party’s Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) didn’t face any truly viable challengers, and Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) campaign turned out to be a comfortable victory despite prior wariness.

That is why we should be wary of simple characterizations like that of Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.), who diagnosed the message from Cantor’s loss as: “negotiation or compromise could get you beat.” Since Cantor’s role in negotiating the end of the government shutdown was a central pillar in Brat’s campaign, there’s been speculation that the new Congress will be even more gummed up than it has been in past years. McCarthy, however, has been hoisted to a party leadership position and isn’t exactly someone who wants to see the wheels of government screech to a halt. He, too, was involved in last autumn’s negotiations and was originally against the shutdown altogether, saying: “We are not shutting the government down.” Though events would conspire to contradict this statement, the sentiment he demonstrated could be a key touchstone for the strategies he will pursue with his now-heightened influence.

For better or worse, McCarthy will ensure that it is mostly business as usual in the House, though the Republican Party at large may continue to feel the tremors of Brat’s triumph, if only due to the rank-and-file’s fear of upstart conservative challengers. But if his past is anything to go by, McCarthy will not stoke the flames of mutiny, and may instead steady the ship after Cantor’s walk down the Tea Party plank.