At a Taipei middle school on the afternoon of Saturday, January 13, I watched from the hallways as Taiwanese voters filtered through to submit their ballots in the island’s legislative general elections and direct national presidential election. By the end of the evening, former vice president Lai Ching-te of the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), known for drawing the ire of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for supporting Taiwan’s de-facto independence and protecting the nation’s democratic sovereignty, won with 40 percent of the popular vote. Lai had managed to defeat the CCP-favored Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yuh-ih and the newcomer third party Taiwanese People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je. The election’s final result came despite an onslaught of PRC meddling efforts, ranging from disinformation campaigns claiming that Lai had an illegitimate child to increased military intimidation across the strait–the entire island received a cell phone notification warning of a Chinese satellite flyover.
During and after the race, English-language media framed the elections as a test of Taiwan’s resilience against the PRC’s efforts to influence the island’s elections. These reports are correct in saying that Lai’s victory strengthened Taiwan’s democratic autonomy and that Taiwan is likely to face escalatory and retaliatory threats from the PRC. However, the situation on the ground reflects a more nuanced reality. A myriad of issues like housing prices, inflation, corruption, and gender equality drive Taiwanese voters far more than English-language media narratives might suggest. Furthermore, when the American media’s sensationalized tunnel vision on Taiwan and cross-strait conflict is echoed by American policymakers, America appears in Taiwanese eyes as either an ambivalent abandoner or an overaggressive loose cannon. Either option undermines Taiwanese faith in American support.
After Lai’s victory over Hou and Ke, media coverage framed the election as a triumph of Taiwanese democracy in holding its eighth free presidential election despite mainland intimidation and disinformation. One headline from Vox declared, “In Taiwan’s high-stakes elections, China is the loser,” while a New York Times opinion essay proclaimed that Lai’s victory meant “A Peaceful Solution on Taiwan is Slipping Away.” Voters did indeed choose the candidate that supports, albeit more and more mildly, a distinct Taiwanese political existence, but the media framing has focused on China’s response and the potential for escalation while attempting to crystal-ball implications on cross-strait relations.
To be sure, the election was highly consequential, both for how the US and the PRC will continue to cast their shadows over the island and for the vitality and legitimacy of Taiwanese democracy. But watching voters in the afternoon sun play soccer with their children or run laps around the school’s track while poll workers tallied votes by hand created a unique sense of narrative dissonance. The reality I saw and heard Taiwanese voters discuss seemed irreconcilable with the often doomsaying portrait painted by think tanks simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan through war games or billionaire Kyle Bass declaring an invasion inevitable before the end of 2024. In the days leading up to the election in Taipei, passing by boisterous rallies from all three major parties and running into vigorous civil society groups, the myriad of domestic issues that felt immediate to voters came into full view.
Perhaps chief amongst these under-addressed domestic challenges have been material and financial concerns surrounding stagnated wages, rising inflation, and unaffordable and often sparse housing. Although minimum wages in countries with housing prices similar to Taiwan’s are two to four times higher, the policy response, particularly from the DPP, has been especially limited and unsuccessful. Measures like social housing and tightened credit control do little to make housing affordable. This concern is pertinent to multiple cohorts of voters, ranging from younger professionals to mothers. One member of the Obasan party (a small party campaigning on issues of gender equality, family-related policies, and children’s rights) that I encountered described how economic conditions were making it especially difficult for people to raise families–a particularly fraught issue given Taiwan’s low birth rates. Ancillary problems, like forced evictions and non-inclusive marriage equality policies, are deterring people from starting families at all. Wage growth lagging behind inflation and growing income inequality salt the wounds of routine grocery trips and vanishing housing prospects. Younger voters I encountered noted their anger at the election’s geopolitical spotlight upstaging their demands for better career opportunities and lower living costs. Public dissatisfaction and immediate material issues have decreased the DPP’s popularity. After years of incumbency, the DPP’s well-worn message of maintaining a distinct democratic society uninhibited by Chinese obstruction appears less vital than the TPP and KMT’s promises to resolve economic issues.
Moreover, the US media’s skewed and outsized focus on cross-strait confrontation has translated itself into the policy and rhetoric of US policymakers, undermining Taiwanese faith in American support and reliability while potentially increasing the risk of conflict. The Taiwan Information Environment Research Center, a think tank, found 84 mostly homegrown narratives of “American skepticism” that encompass “a broad set of narratives that depicts the United States as an unreliable partner for Taiwan.” These narratives paint the US as bound to abandon Taiwan, as a chaotic aggressor, or as divided and weak— dangerous messaging that undermines the island’s security and democracy. Much of Taiwan hears cacophonous and often hawkish American rhetoric and comes away frightened that the United States might serve as a provocateur or abandon the island due to internal divisions or self-interest. This collective doubt about the United States’ commitment to Taiwan is fueled in part by misinformed American rhetoric and policy, with former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou telling the New York Times,“Quite a few Americans, opinion leaders or particular members of Congress, made ridiculous statements over Taiwan.” While Taiwan’s domestic state of affairs should not be under the purview of American foreign policy, the narratives echoed and amplified within English-language media often sensationalize cross-strait conflict. They simply do not reflect the lived reality of most Taiwanese, and they carry real risks in undermining US-Taiwan relations. Such conflict-based narratives seem to have embedded themselves into American perceptions of Taiwan and produced a dangerous dissonance between Taiwanese and American policymakers. A more nuanced understanding beyond predicting when China will invade Taiwan is necessary for creating any sustainable and peaceful status quo that secures the island’s democratic rule.