The Democratic Party has monopolized the black vote for decades. Since 1976 the Democrats have received more than 80 percent of the black vote, and at least 90 percent during both the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections. Yet, Bernie Sanders, the Independent and democratic socialist Senator from Vermont challenging Hilary in the Democratic primaries, has had to surrender his microphone to Black Lives Matter activists twice in only a month. When met with jeers from the crowd at Sanders’ rally, protestor Marissa Janae Johnson demanded immediate silence if viewers wanted to hear Sanders speak at all. But, even after a four-and-a-half minute moment of silence in honor of Michael Brown, the protestors did not yield the microphone, and Sanders was forced to end his event.
The Black Lives Matter movement largely consists of protests, mostly peaceful but occasionally violent, against police brutality and other effects of institutionalized racism. Unexpectedly, the Democratic Party is bearing the brunt of the movement’s fury, creating a potential issue area where the Republican Party may have something to gain.
Black Lives Matter activists cite frustration with “white progressives” as one of their primary motivations for interrupting the speeches of Democratic leaders. Many white liberal campaigns across-the-boards reform to benefit the poor, such as increasing taxes on the wealthy and increasing funding for Medicaid, are not targeted enough to appease the leaders of the movement. Instead, Black Lives Matter activists feel that their specific and unique needs as African Americans are being ignored. Some of these specific issues include increasingly disturbing instances of police brutality against people of color and the hugely disproportionate incarceration of black men.
Sanders isn’t the first or only Democrat to experience these protests. Earlier this year, President Obama gave a speech in Selma, Alabama on the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday, a day on which many civil rights activists were attacked by police officers during a peaceful march for equal voting rights. During the speech, which recognized that the “march” towards social justice “is not yet finished,” Black Lives Matter protestors beat drums and shouted, calling for change. The president did not acknowledge their chants. Hillary Clinton, arguably the most popular current Democratic candidate, has not yet experienced such a disruption, maybe due to the fact that her events are less open than Sanders’. Just this month, a group of similar activists attempted to protest a Clinton event but were denied access by Secret Service.
These constant protests suggest that the Democratic Party may be losing African American’s unwavering support. And although African-American support for Democrats is the status quo today, this hasn’t always held true. A hundred years ago, most African Americans were Republicans. After all, the Republican Party was that of the Great Emancipator, Abraham Lincoln. As recently as 1960, only two-thirds of African Americans were Democrats, compared with 90 percent today. This large shift seems to have been the result of the introduction of the Civil Rights Act by Democratic president Lyndon B. Johnson, which the majority of the GOP at the time did not support. As the history of the African American vote shows, voting bloc behaviors can, and do, change. So, if African Americans feel that Democrats are no longer suiting their needs, a mass migration of voters away from the party would not be at all unprecedented.
Alongside widespread social unrest comes the opportunity for political groups to capitalize on the feelings of discontent and unease. Surprisingly, Democrats do not seem to be using the Black Lives Matter campaign to attract new voters. Instead they are leaving the influence of the movement on the 2016 presidential election wildly uncertain. But the Democrats should not expect that the GOP won’t jump at the opportunity to shave votes off of a key Democratic bloc. Republican candidate Rand Paul, for example, recently appealed to Black Lives Matter activists who are growing increasingly dissatisfied with the Democratic Party. His support from 29 percent of African Americans in his home state of Kentucky (up from 13 percent during his 2010 Senate race) shows that his visits to historically black colleges and meetings with prominent African American leaders are paying off. In a November op-ed, Paul showed support for black Americans, writing, “In the African-American community, folks rightly ask why are our sons disproportionately incarcerated, killed, and maimed?”
Paul has also visited Ferguson, Missouri, the site of the Michael Brown shooting, to speak to its community members. Furthermore, his proposed policies address some key issues for African American voters. Paul advocates for fair sentencing laws that promise to end the disproportionate imprisonment of black Americans, and he also supports restored voting rights for non-violent ex-criminals, many of whom are African American. Paul has even gone so far as to speak out against the police shooting of a black man named Walter Scott. In doing so,
Paul is the sole Republican candidate to substantively address the issues the Black Lives Matter movement focuses on.
The candidate with the next best reputation among African American voters seems to be Jeb Bush. In 1998, he set a state record during his run for governor in Florida, earning the votes of 14 percent of African Americans. Still, that is likely not to be enough to matter in this election, as Bush has failed to respond positively to Black Lives Matter activists. Furthermore, at a recent rally in Nevada, Bush cut his speech short after protestors from the movement began chanting in protest. When asked about minority issues, he cited his record of improved test scores among minority students in Florida. However, this information was not enough to appease opponents.
More likely than not, Bush will not woo the movement, leaving Paul as the only Republican candidate with the chance of attracting African-American voters. And after his poor performance at the first GOP presidential debate and struggle to raise funds, Paul’s support from the Republican Party is incredibly low.
Paul’s struggle to gain in the polls is indicative of the main challenge to a shift towards a more race conscious Republican Party: the primary elections. As the party base leans further right, more traditional and heavily socially conservative candidates are gaining popularity. Currently topping the GOP polls is businessman-turned-politician Donald Trump, notorious for offensive and blatantly racist remarks. Unsurprisingly, most voters who turn up to Republican primaries will be registered members of the Republican Party, which includes only a miniscule percentage of black voters. So, in order for a Republican candidate to even have the chance to gain the support of the majority of African Americans, they must win the primary first, where black voters are almost nonexistent.
While Paul’s policies may not end up earning him the presidency, they will undoubtedly influence other candidates. Black Lives Matter activists will continue to protest Democratic candidates’ events, and presidential hopefuls will be forced to respond. With a Republican candidate aiming policies at black advancement, Sanders, Clinton and Martin O’Malley would deviate further from the expectations of a race-conscious Democratic Party by not doing the same. The three candidates have only recently begun tackling the issues called for by their interrupters and have not yet received a positive reaction. Whichever candidate can most effectively address the issues and win the support of the activists will have a huge advantage in primaries and the general election. As for the Republican Party, it may not be quite ready to welcome a large influx of minority voters. Still, the simple fact that a Republican candidate made the effort to speak about race is a sign that the party is evolving. If Jeb Bush can defeat Donald Trump in the Republican primary, former Paul supporters could pressure him to show the same commitment to addressing minority issues. Black voters’ frustration with even the most progressive members of the Democratic Party may be the catalyst for a slow but steady change in the reputations and demographics of both parties.
Brilliantly written. I love this article.