As the Oscar season comes whirling in, the next big culture war stands in the wings ready to pounce on an unsuspecting, yet willing audience, sparking debate in Hollywood and in Washington. Over the past few years, movies have not only brought moviegoers to the box office, but have also garnered debates about issues that have real life consequences and stories. Movies able to achieve this level of fame through their quality and potency have been crowding coveted Oscar nominee slots. In 2013, Argo and Zero Dark Thirty created political and issue-based discussion; in 2014, Dallas Buyers Club and 12 Years a Slave did the same thing. This past Oscar’s slate featured cultural icebreakers like Selma, American Sniper, and The Imitation Game. This upcoming year is exploding with potential for driving political discussion, but there is an extra twist that the Oscars have never really seen before, a wealth of potential nominees in support of the LGBTQ community. Eddie Redmayne has already nearly secured his nomination for Best Actor for his role in The Danish Girl as Lili Elbe, one of the world’s first transwomen. Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara star in Carol, a forbidden love story between two women set in the 1950s. Additionally, Freeheld features the fight of two women — portrayed by Julianne Moore and Ellen Page — in a domestic partnership to secure death benefits as one is dying from lung cancer. With this increased narrative of LGBTQ struggles, public attention will be directed to LGBTQ history, and the media will propel these issues into the national news stream. Inevitably, movies like The Danish Girl, Carol, and Freeheld, will spark enough of a discussion to factor, at least in part, into the 2016 election, and the reactions from presidential candidates will either perpetuate a positive overture or continue to bog down an already antediluvian attitude.
In recent Oscar seasons, a few movies have actually fostered positive political discussions. Zero Dark Thirty, the dramatic chronicling of the events of and leading up to the death of Osama bin Laden, sparked a discussion on the scope of government. This ultimately contributed to the discussions of presidential militaristic power and judicial oversight in military decisions. Similarly, another 2013 Oscar nominee — in fact, Best Picture winner, Argo — recounted the story of the Iran Hostage Crisis, again contributing to an overall sense of American pride and pushing forward a dialogue among the American populace about international diplomacy (the movie even garnered some negative international attention). Movies can have an impact on the way people view government. A recent study by Michelle Pautz at the University of Dayton found that people’s opinions towards the government more broadly actually improved about 25 percent of the time after watching Zero Dark Thirty or Argo, a signal to filmmakers around the country that an Oscar-worthy movie can actually make palpable differences in people’s political opinions.
For the 2014 and 2015 Oscars, many films took their ability to foster positive discussion seriously. In 2014, 12 Years a Slave encouraged discussions about race in America, adding a new wrinkle in this extremely important debate. Additionally, Dallas Buyers Club brought new light to how the country addressed the AIDS epidemic, transgender people, and the struggles they face through Jared Leto’s Oscar winning performance. In 2015, three Best Picture nominees had social messages. Selma, a depiction of Martin Luther King Jr.’s march from Selma to Montgomery and the struggles and turmoil behind it, provided another avenue for race discussions to be held around the country, including Rep. John Lewis, a leader in the Civil Rights Movement. The movie, combined with the general celebration of its 50th anniversary and President Obama’s moving speech, created a discussion to help foster change within this country. The Imitation Game, another historical drama—this one about Alan Turing and his story of cracking the German Enigma in World War II, brought forth more discussions about the past and current treatment of people in the homosexual community. While the movie is more broadly focused on Turing’s autism (another point creating positive political discourse) and his achievements during the war, the movie’s Oscar campaign largely hinged on its portrayal of Turing and his sexuality. But easily the most controversial and provocative Oscar nominee was Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper, the dramatic retelling of Chris Kyle, a legendary Marine sniper, who, as a result of this movie, posthumously received his own day in Texas. This movie sparked a cultural war, with many sides debating whether Kyle was a war hero or a murderer, whether the movie glorified the military or denounced it, and whether the movie accurately depicted the Iraq War or whitewashed many of the details. In short, many recent Oscar nominees and winners have made political statements or at least fostered positive political discourse. Movies play an important role in shaping the political opinions of many people, and Oscar-quality movies are increasingly capitalizing on that fact.
The upcoming 2016 Oscars will be no different and will, in fact, have even more movies garnering votes that have the ability to raise political debates and policy conversations. While there are a few movies that could certainly encourage civic engagement around a single issue — Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies and the idea of international diplomacy; Carey Mulligan’s Suffragette and the current feminist movement; Will Smith’s Concussion and the dangers of playing sports with repeated head trauma — there is certainly an undertone that pushes the political narrative towards one surrounding LGBTQ rights and policy improvements. Never before has there been an Oscar season with so many quality films all creating debate around a single topic, especially one as relevant as LGBTQ freedoms. Freeheld sends the message that, despite achievements in marriage equality, there is still work to be done. The Danish Girl helps highlight lack of understanding and discrimination in the transgender community. Carol can show how societal norms can tear apart relationships.
With this overarching narrative and infusion of LGBTQ issues into the mainstream media via movies, 2016 political candidates will have a particularly tough time avoiding these issues. While previous Oscar seasons have not had much effect on candidates running for office, these year’s contenders certainly have a large opportunity to encroach into electoral politics because of the unprecedented similarity in topic and quality of the films. No other potential Oscar slate has ever featured as many movies within the same political vein, which enhances the opportunity for these LGBTQ issues to creep into electoral rhetoric. Obviously, LGBTQ issues are more of a problem for Republican candidates, so the likely success of these movies will compel them to voice their opinions on these issues. But Democrats will also face real policy decisions on these matters, like should bullying of LGBTQ children be forbidden by federal law and do transgender people deserve equal medical coverage? These questions will be debated and discussed in mainstream media, so the issues these movies raise become political footballs, especially given the movies’ likely positive accolades in Hollywood. Campaigns and candidates would do well not to fumble at the goal line.